Time Series Analysis

We provide a concise overview of time series analysis in the time and frequency domains, with lots of references for further reading.time series analysis, time domain, frequency domain, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods,

Mean reversion in annual earnings and its implications for security valuation

This article documents the long-horizon mean reverting character of annual earnings and tests the implications of such mean reversion for security valuation. First, both theory-based and nonparametric measures of earnings persistence decrease as the estimation order increases, revealing 40 percent less long-horizon persistence than expected under the commonly used random walk model. Second, the return responses to the earnings shocks are more closely related across firms to the higher-order measures of persistence that reflect significant long-horizon mean reversion. Third, the persistence measure derived from classical valuation theory outperforms the generic measure in explaining the return responses. Taken as a whole, these results provide evidence for significant mean reversion in the higher-order properties of earnings and for the stock market incorporating these properties in a manner consistent with classical valuation theory.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/47883/1/11156_2005_Article_BF01082663.pd

Tourism income and economic growth in Greece: Empirical evidence from their cyclical components

This paper examines the relationship between the cyclical components of Greek GDP and international tourism income for Greece for the period 1976–2004. Using spectral analysis the authors find that cyclical fluctuations of GDP have a length of about nine years and that international tourism income has a cycle of about seven years. The volatility of tourism income is more than eight times the volatility of the Greek GDP cycle. VAR analysis shows that the cyclical component of tourism income is significantly influencing the cyclical component of GDP in Greece. The findings support the tourism-led economic growth hypothesis and are of particular interest and importance to policy makers, financial analysts and investors dealing with the Greek tourism industry

Time Series Analysis

We provide a concise overview of time series analysis in the time and frequency domains, with lots of references for further reading

A non-linear time series model for the South Korean Won/British pound exchange rate : 1.1.97-9.30.98

We construct a non-linear time series model for the South Korean Won/British Pound exchange rate for the period 1 January 1997 to 30 September 1998. This was a period of great upheaval in the South Korean financial markets. We show that a variant of the GARCH class of models provides a good fit to the data. We use the model to produce a set of one-step-ahead exchange rate forecasts for the first ten trading days of October 1998. The model produces better forecasts than the well-known random walk model.

Foreign Investors and Global Integration of Emerging Indian Equity Market

This article examines the influence of foreign investors in explaining short-run dynamics and long-run relationship of the emerging Indian equity market with global equity markets. Using daily return series and equity portfolio investments made by foreign institutional investors, we conclude that the rapid growth in the flow of foreign equity portfolio investments is leading to greater integration of the Indian equity market with global markets. With the increased global integration, the Indian market will become more susceptible to global shocks as has been witnessed by significant losses suffered by investors in the Indian market following the sub-prime crisis